Now it's swinging polls not hanging chads that scare Democrats

Barack Obama is deploying an awesome battery of firepower to blow out a faint flicker of hope in John McCain's campaign that he can yet pull off an unlikely comeback in the final days of this election.

The Democratic nominee spent yesterday hopscotching through battleground states where he hammered home his message on the economy, the issue of greatest concern to voters and on which some polls suggest that McCain has begun to close the gap.

He told a rally in Sarasota, Florida: “John McCain has stood with President Bush every step of the way. And you've got to ask yourself: why would we keep on driving down this dead-end street?”

On Wednesday night he blanketed TV networks with a half-hour commercial designed to allay concerns about electing an inexperienced — and black — president. The advert drew 26.4 million viewers to three major networks, according to Nielsen Media Research.


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Later, at a midnight rally with 35,000 people in Kissimmee, he took the stage with Bill Clinton, who declared: “Folks, we can't fool with this. Our country is hanging in the balance. This man should be our president.”

The heavy Democratic bombardment of Florida will continue tomorrow when Al Gore campaigns in the state that, by the narrowest of margins, destroyed his presidential dream eight years ago.

Republicans selectively point to national polls that show Mr Obama's lead is as low as 3 per cent, although others suggest it is five times larger. Mr McCain declared in the city of Defiance, Ohio, yesterday: “We're a few points behind but we're coming back.”

One explanation for the wide disparity in surveys is that polling organisations make different assumptions about “likely voters”, with those who give Mr Obama a large lead believing that there will be a surge in turnout among African-Americans and young people. Figures for early voting in key states including Iowa, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, suggest that the Democrat candidate is already benefiting.

But Mr McCain's chief pollster, Bill McInturff, issued a memo this week, arguing: “All signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call.” He said that expected gains for Mr Obama among black and young people would be offset by increased turnout among rural and less-educated voters. “Wal-Mart women” with no education and household incomes below $60,000 (£36,400) are “swinging back, solidly,” he claimed.

Some Republicans also say that polls tend to overestimate support for black candidates — notably Tom Bradley, who lost a 1982 race for Governor of California — when they are up against white opponents.

David Axelrod, Mr Obama's chief strategist, said: “It's unreasonable to expect anyone to win this race by more than three to five points. It will tighten, that is the nature of these contests. But do I see what the Republicans claim to be seeing? No. State by state this is going very well.”

Mr McCain has widened his attacks on Mr Obama in recent days to complain that The Los Angeles Times is withholding publication of a video tape showing his rival meeting a Palestinian activist, Rashid Khalidi. At the same time Republicans have launched a new TV advert, with Middle Eastern music playing in the background, highlighting Mr Obama's stated wish to hold talks with Iranian leaders. This is being seen as a possible nudge to voters who still believe false rumours that he is a Muslim.

But Mr McCain has told CNN that race would not decide this election and focused his attention yesterday firmly on economic issues such as Mr Obama's proposed tax increases, which the Republican has suggested are reminiscent of socialism.

Mr Obama is showing signs of sensitivity on this issue, telling his rally in Florida: “I love rich people, I want all of you to be rich.” He added: “I don't know what's next. By the end of the week, he'll be accusing me of being a secret communist because I shared my toys in kindergarten.”
Reported by The Times