President Obama Approval Rating down to 41% in just 19 short months so much for change

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 48%, Democrats 36%

July 21, 2010 - Obama Approval Drops To Lowest Point Ever, Quinnipiac University

A year after President Barack Obama's political honeymoon ended, his job approval rating has dropped to a negative 44 - 48 percent, his worst net score ever, and American voters say by a narrow 39 - 36 percent margin that they would vote for an unnamed Republican rather than President Obama in 2012, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.


This compares to a 48 - 43 percent approval for Obama in a May 26 national poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and a 57 - 33 percent approval last July, just before the political firestorm created by opposition to his health care plan galvanized political opponents and turned independent voters against him.

In this latest survey of more than 2,000 voters, independent voters disapprove of Obama 52 - 38 percent and say 37 - 27 percent they would vote for a Republican contender in 2012.

American voters also say 48 - 40 percent Obama does not deserve reelection in 2012.

Anti-incumbent sentiment slams both parties as voters disapprove 59 - 31 percent of the job Democrats are doing, and disapprove 59 - 29 percent of Republicans in Congress. But voters say 43 - 38 percent they would vote for a Republican in a generic Congressional race.

American voters say 42 - 32 percent that Obama has been a better president than George W. Bush, similar to the 43 - 30 percent who felt that way in January of 2010.

"It was a year ago, during the summer of 2009 that America's love affair with President Barack Obama began to wane. In July of 2009, the President had a 57 - 33 percent approval rating. Today, his support among Democrats remains strong, but the disillusionment among independent voters, who dropped from 52 - 37 percent approval to 52 - 38 percent disapproval in the last 12 months, is what leads to his weakness overall when voters start thinking about 2012," said Peter A. Brown., assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"In politics a month is a lifetime and we have 28 months until November of 2012. But politicians with re-elect numbers at 40 percent bear watching," Brown added.

American voters like Obama more than Sarah Palin, giving him a 49 - 45 percent favorability, while she gets a negative 35 - 49 percent.

Michelle Obama does much better, with a 55 - 19 percent favorability.

Twelve percent of voters say they are more likely to support a candidate for office, if Obama campaigns for the candidate, compared to 16 percent if Palin campaigns.

The country would be better off if John McCain had won the 2008 election, 37 percent of voters say, while 35 percent say the U.S. would be worse off. This compares to 37 - 35 percent who thought in January the U.S. would be worse off under McCain.

Asked to describe their feelings toward the President, 17 percent say they admire him; 33 percent are satisfied; 33 percent are dissatisfied and 15 percent are angry with him.
"The Republican tilt of the electorate little more than 100 days before the 2010 election is evident, but not overwhelming. Republicans hold a 43 - 38 percent lead on the 'generic ballot,' compared to a 42 - 34 percent Democratic lead in July 2009," said Brown. "What a difference a year makes."

Read full story at Quinnipiac University

Poll: Most Say Obama Lacks Clear Plans on the Oil Spill, Energy or Jobs

Obama's honeymoon is fading fast

Although the national media isn't talking about the Presidents approval rating I will. With spending at an all time high with this administration during the first six months of this year. Were seeing that once 70% approval rating slowly drop to the mid 50's (Gallop at 57%) to a low 61% with some polls, but what's really interesting is the percentages of unhappy Americans with the directions of this country. Gallop shows the state of the nation poll reflecting 30% satisfied and 67% dissatisfied with the direction of the economy. Even President Carter had a 62% approval rating during July of his first term. But what is most interesting is While 42% of Americans say that their views on political issues have not changed in recent years, 39% say their views are now more conservative and 18% say they are more liberal. With Voters now trusting Republicans more than Democrats on eight out of 10 key electoral issues, including, for the second straight month, the top issue of the economy. They've also narrowed the gap on the remaining two issues, the traditionally Democratic strong suits of health care and education. (Rasmussen report)

President Obama Job Approval with different poll watchers

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

Now it's swinging polls not hanging chads that scare Democrats

Barack Obama is deploying an awesome battery of firepower to blow out a faint flicker of hope in John McCain's campaign that he can yet pull off an unlikely comeback in the final days of this election.

The Democratic nominee spent yesterday hopscotching through battleground states where he hammered home his message on the economy, the issue of greatest concern to voters and on which some polls suggest that McCain has begun to close the gap.

He told a rally in Sarasota, Florida: “John McCain has stood with President Bush every step of the way. And you've got to ask yourself: why would we keep on driving down this dead-end street?”

On Wednesday night he blanketed TV networks with a half-hour commercial designed to allay concerns about electing an inexperienced — and black — president. The advert drew 26.4 million viewers to three major networks, according to Nielsen Media Research.


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Later, at a midnight rally with 35,000 people in Kissimmee, he took the stage with Bill Clinton, who declared: “Folks, we can't fool with this. Our country is hanging in the balance. This man should be our president.”

The heavy Democratic bombardment of Florida will continue tomorrow when Al Gore campaigns in the state that, by the narrowest of margins, destroyed his presidential dream eight years ago.

Republicans selectively point to national polls that show Mr Obama's lead is as low as 3 per cent, although others suggest it is five times larger. Mr McCain declared in the city of Defiance, Ohio, yesterday: “We're a few points behind but we're coming back.”

One explanation for the wide disparity in surveys is that polling organisations make different assumptions about “likely voters”, with those who give Mr Obama a large lead believing that there will be a surge in turnout among African-Americans and young people. Figures for early voting in key states including Iowa, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, suggest that the Democrat candidate is already benefiting.

But Mr McCain's chief pollster, Bill McInturff, issued a memo this week, arguing: “All signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call.” He said that expected gains for Mr Obama among black and young people would be offset by increased turnout among rural and less-educated voters. “Wal-Mart women” with no education and household incomes below $60,000 (£36,400) are “swinging back, solidly,” he claimed.

Some Republicans also say that polls tend to overestimate support for black candidates — notably Tom Bradley, who lost a 1982 race for Governor of California — when they are up against white opponents.

David Axelrod, Mr Obama's chief strategist, said: “It's unreasonable to expect anyone to win this race by more than three to five points. It will tighten, that is the nature of these contests. But do I see what the Republicans claim to be seeing? No. State by state this is going very well.”

Mr McCain has widened his attacks on Mr Obama in recent days to complain that The Los Angeles Times is withholding publication of a video tape showing his rival meeting a Palestinian activist, Rashid Khalidi. At the same time Republicans have launched a new TV advert, with Middle Eastern music playing in the background, highlighting Mr Obama's stated wish to hold talks with Iranian leaders. This is being seen as a possible nudge to voters who still believe false rumours that he is a Muslim.

But Mr McCain has told CNN that race would not decide this election and focused his attention yesterday firmly on economic issues such as Mr Obama's proposed tax increases, which the Republican has suggested are reminiscent of socialism.

Mr Obama is showing signs of sensitivity on this issue, telling his rally in Florida: “I love rich people, I want all of you to be rich.” He added: “I don't know what's next. By the end of the week, he'll be accusing me of being a secret communist because I shared my toys in kindergarten.”
Reported by The Times

Wide Disparities Between Polls Makes Careful Interpretation Necessary

As the presidential candidates travel from state to state trying to win over voters, pollsters across the country are just as relentless in reflecting the public's opinion of the candidate's efforts.

While recent polls indicate Democratic nominee Barack Obama has a lead over Republican rival John McCain, there has been wide disparity in the numbers, with some showing the gap as narrow as 4 percentage points and others putting it at as wide at 14 points.

With wide disparities between two polls, how do analysts truly see which candidate is in the lead?

Careful interpretation is the expert's answer. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett once said that "A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought." However, for those who make their living giving thought to the numbers, public-opinion polls are not a substitute for, but rather food for thought. For election forecasters, they are a central component of a tricky formula.

In an interview with RTTNews, Professor James Campbell of the State University at Buffalo in New York, who has his own election forecasting model, outlined some of the inherent flaws of polls. One such discrepancy has to do with the difference between surveying registered voters and likely voters.

"Most of the polls have tried to measure what registered voters are thinking and that is different than what registered voters are thinking of that time," he said. "I think that the history of that attempt has not been very good and I think the pollsters acknowledge that."

Typically, there are more registered Democrats then registered Republicans, making them overrepresented in polls of registered voters, Campbell said. He suggests focusing on likely voters, or at least separating the results of likely and registered voter polls.

However, lacking that separation, Campbell said he thinks that polls will lean in Obama's favor.

Specifically, Campbell cited a CBS/New York Times poll from earlier in the week that showed Obama with a 14 percentage point lead over rival John McCain.

"I think the CBS/NY Times Poll has always been on the high side for Democrats…a little bit erratic too," he said.

While there will be sampling errors in any poll, and "even by the same organization or the same method is going to yield a little bit different results," Campbell said that it is good to take a look at the average. For his election forecast he relied on Gallup.

Averaging various polls is also recommended by Professor Robert Erikson of Columbia University, who along with Temple University Professor Christopher Wlezien works on election forecasting. Speaking with RTTNews, Erikson said that in his forecast he and Wlezien used all polls, or "whatever was available."

When asked how to reconcile the differences between polls, Erikson said that there is no real way to know if one poll is better than another.

"You don't know which ones are the bad ones," he said. "We just pick an average."

That average came from 30 or 40 polls per month, Erikson said.

Both Campbell and Erikson's early predictors are models that take into account a wide variety of factors. However, their forecasts selected different candidates. Not taking into account the events of the past few weeks, Campbell's model predicted a McCain victory, while the Erikson- Wlezien predicted Obama.

Although Campbell's forecast selected McCain to win the popular vote, there was an unforeseen event that has been the equivalent of "a meteor hitting the campaign." That event - the financial crisis - has seemed to help Obama, boosting the Illinois senator in the polls in the last few weeks.

"Nobody was anticipating this, none of the forecasting model," Campbell said. Calling it an "extremely unusual case," he said that the election has been greatly changed due to the market meltdown.

Erikson said that there is a clear correlation to the decline in the economy and the increase in support for Obama.

"The economy has gone downward the last month, Obama support has gone up," Erikson said.

Overall, Erikson expects Obama to win 52 or 53 percent of the two party vote. He gives McCain a less than 1 in 10 chance for a comeback, but greater than 1 in 20.

Despite his election forecasting model's prediction, the financial crisis has led Campbell to also predict Obama as the victor on November 4th. When asked he thinks McCain can engineer a comeback, Campbell said it was a long shot.

"Probably not, but his only chance is to try," he said.

Campbell referenced the 1948 presidential election, when incumbent president Harry Truman orchestrated a stunning upset of rival Thomas Dewey. However, the financial shock is the economic equivalent of a terrorist attack the size of September 11th in the middle of the campaign, he said, making this a "very pro-Democratic year."

Erikson concedes that although McCain has a considerable obstacle, it is "not impossible to overcome."
Reported by RTTNews

Thinking about the elections in November with todays Polls

Thinking about the elections in November

Most Americans who listened to radio or surfed the Internet on Election Day in 2004 sat down to watch the evening television coverage thinking John Kerry won the election. Anchor people were discussing whom Kerry would choose for his cabinet, Exit polls showed him ahead in nearly every battleground state, in many cases by sizable margins. Two factors seemed to explain Kerry’s edge: turnout was very high, good news for Democrats, and as in every US presidential election with an incumbent over the past quarter-century, undecided voters broke heavily toward the challenger Out of 7 polls during this period had John Kerry leading ( 5 )over Bush ( 2 ). So when I see the polls today they really mean nothing due to how the questions in the polls are asked and the number of responders spilt between Democrat and Republican. Example I read a CNN poll that show 1,000 responders but the poll has almost 2 to 1 democrats over Republicans asked questions, so the poll means nothing, it showed Obama 52% by McCain 42%. Below are the polls from the 2004 election.
If the election for president were held today and the candidates were Republican George Bush and the Democrat John Kerry, for whom would you vote: George Bush or John Kerry? October 24-25, 2004
Kerry 49%
Bush 47%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Unsure 1%
margin of error: 3.1%
source: Democracy Corps Poll
If the presidential election were being held today... Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates?October 22-24, 2004
Bush 51%
Kerry 46%
Nader 1%
Other -%
Unsure 2%
margin of error: 3%
source: Gallup
If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote? October 23-25, 2004
Bush 49%
Kerry 46%
Nader 1%
Badnarik -%
Peroutka -%
Cobb -%
Other 4%
margin of error: 2.9%
source: Zogby International
If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote? October 22-24, 2004
Kerry 50%
Bush 48%
Other/Undecided 2%
margin of error: 3.7%
source: Survey USA

If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote? October 23-25, 2004
John Kerry 49%
George W. Bush 46%
Ralph Nader 1%
Undecided 4%
margin of error: 4%
source: American Research Group
If the election for president and vice president were being held today and the names on the ballot included George W. Bush for President and Dick Cheney for Vice President, the Republicans, and John Kerry for President and John Edwards for Vice President, the Democrats, for whom would you vote - Bush, Kerry, or someone else? October 21-24, 2004
Kerry 47%
Bush 45%
Other 1.5%
Undecided 6%
margin of error: 4.1%
source: Zogby International
If the election for president and vice president were being held today and the names on the ballot included George W. Bush for President and Dick Cheney for Vice President, the Republicans, and John Kerry for President and John Edwards for Vice President, the Democrats, for whom would you vote - Bush, Kerry, or someone else? October 23-25, 2004
Kerry 50%
Bush 47%
Other/Undecided 3%
margin of error: 4%
source: American Research Group